3.4 OpenAI Valuation
OpenAI's valuation, reaching $80-90+ billion in various deals by early 2024, is not just a financial metric. It is a mathematically formalized expectation of the future, a bet by investors that AI will become a new foundational layer of the entire global economy, akin to electricity or the internet. To understand this astronomical figure, one must see how OpenAI transformed from a startup with non-profit ambitions into one of the world's most influential and valuable technology companies.
Evolution of Capitalization: From Idealism to Hegemony
Phase 1: Non-Profit Research Institute (2015-2019). Founded as a non-profit organization with an initial pledge of $1 billion from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and others, OpenAI's goal was to develop safe AI for the benefit of humanity. Money was a tool to attract top talent and pay enormous computing bills. Valuation was conditional; the company did not sell shares. Its assets were research (GPT-1, GPT-2, DALL-E 1) and reputation.
Phase 2: Hybrid Model and First Commercial Success (2019-2022). To attract the capital needed to train next-generation models (costs amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars), a capped-profit company (OpenAI LP) was created under the management of a non-profit board. Microsoft made a strategic $1 billion investment, gaining access to technologies for Azure and an exclusive license for commercialization. The valuation after this round was about $20 billion.
The launch of ChatGPT based on GPT-3.5 in November 2022 was a turning point. The product showed that powerful AI could be a mass-market, viral, and monetizable phenomenon.
Phase 3: The ChatGPT Phenomenon and Explosive Valuation (2023-2024).
- User Growth: 100 million active users in two months — an unprecedented adoption rate for any consumer product in history.
- Monetization: A paid ChatGPT Plus subscription ($20/month), followed by an API for developers, and the corporate solution ChatGPT Enterprise. Revenue generation grew exponentially.
- 2023 Funding Round: Raised $10+ billion from Microsoft and other investors. Valuation soared to $29 billion.
- Tender Offer Deal (2024): The company organized a deal allowing employees and investors to sell a portion of their shares. In this deal, the valuation was set at $80-90+ billion. This means the valuation nearly tripled in one year.
What is Such a Valuation Based On? Analysis of Value Drivers
Investors are not valuing current profit (OpenAI is likely still unprofitable due to huge computing costs), but the discounted value of future cash flows from a potentially dominant platform.
Monopoly on the Most Advanced Foundational AI Model. GPT-4 and its successors are not just a chatbot. They are a universal cognitive engine. It is becoming the foundation for millions of applications: from search (the new Bing) and office suites (Microsoft 365 Copilot) to specialized solutions in law, medicine, and education. Through its API, OpenAI controls access to this "engine," charging for every "start" (token). This model is analogous to how Google controls search or Microsoft controls operating systems.
Platform Effect and Ecosystem. OpenAI is rapidly transforming from a model producer into a platform:
- GPT Store: A marketplace for custom versions of ChatGPT (GPTs), where creators can monetize their specialized assistants. OpenAI takes a cut of the transactions.
- Developer Ecosystem: Millions of developers are building businesses on the OpenAI API, creating a "lock-in" effect: the more products depend on GPT, the harder it is to switch to a competitor.
Data and Feedback Loop. Every query to ChatGPT, especially from paying users, is invaluable data for improving the model. This creates a self-reinforcing loop: better model → more users → more data → an even better model. The gap with competitors increases exponentially.
Vertical Integration and the Path to AGI. OpenAI not only creates software but also actively researches the next generation of models (GPT-5, projects like Q*), working on solving reasoning and planning problems. Investors are paying for an option on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). If OpenAI is the first to create an AGI prototype, its value would become comparable to the value of entire sectors of the global economy.
Risks Reflected in the Company's Structure
The unique hybrid structure (a non-profit board governing a for-profit subsidiary) is a direct response to the risks that also contribute to the high valuation premium.
Existential Risk: If AI becomes too powerful, the non-profit board can halt or alter the direction of development, even at the expense of profit. For investors, this is insurance against creating a dangerous technology, but also a limitation on profit maximization.
Regulatory Risks: Global regulators (EU, USA) are actively developing AI laws. The high valuation incorporates the expectation that OpenAI, as a leader and "responsible" player, will be better able than others to adapt to new rules and even help shape them.
Comparison and Context
A $90+ billion valuation places OpenAI alongside giants like SpaceX and Stripe, making it one of the most valuable private companies in the world. At the same time:
- Compared to Google/Meta: Their valuation is based on dominant advertising business models. OpenAI's valuation is based on subscription and transaction fees for intelligence as a service — a potentially larger market.
- Compared to Nvidia: Nvidia is the "pick and shovel" vendor of the AI gold rush (chips). OpenAI is the main "prospector" showing the world what gold (applications) can be found.
Conclusion: Valuation as a Measure of Transformation
OpenAI's phenomenal valuation is the financial mirror of a technological and social revolution. It is a bet that the company is not just selling chatbot services, but building the operating system for the next era, where AI will become as basic a resource as the electrical grid. Every dollar of its valuation is a vote with money for a world in which artificial intelligence will be the central productive force and a commercial empire, the scale of which we are only beginning to comprehend.